Now that the first ‘two crucial weeks’ of a state-imposed lockdown have passed, we have entered a second ‘two crucial weeks’ period – with promises of more ‘two week crucial periods’ ahead of us – as everyone waits to see if the anticipated statistical predictions regarding COVID-19 actually come to pass.
First, we were faced with a coronavirus health pandemic. Then, world governments created a second crisis by shutting down their economies and precipitating an unemployment pandemic and a financial pandemic. Now, it appears that we have a serious COVID-19 ‘statistics crisis,’ which may, in the end, be the one most responsible for precipitating all the fear and panic concerning the first two.
An increasing number of analysts are calling into question the validity of COVID-19 projections based on extrapolations of very dubious data samplings. There is also evidence surfacing that the statistics are being manipulated to present a false picture of the situation.
For example, there is a huge difference between measuring ‘cases’ of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and measuring the number of people suffering from the COVID-19 disease. Yet our governments have intentionally decided to treat each of these very distinct concepts as being identical.
It is becoming increasingly recognized that the statistics cited in our daily COVID19 updates may not be statistically valid. and do not represent valid comparisons or projections.
Statistics are, after all, merely measurements of those things that we choose to measure. They are only valid ‘after the fact,’ so to speak – and only if they reflect the facts. Further, they are only useful insofar as the things being measured and compared are the same – which is certainly not the case when equating the virus with the disease.
In the end, the coronavirus will run its course regardless of what politicians and governments choose to do. We know this because that’s what our politicians and governments themselves have been saying. And if so, then all of the state prohibitions on freedom of association are completely unnecessary and will only create a further crisis.
Why are they doing it? “To flatten a curve” – a curve that contains the very same COVID-19 numbers as it does when ‘flattened.’ Alarmingly, the only justification for this total economic shut down concerns an attempt to ‘slow’ the virus, not to stop it other than by letting it run its natural course until vaccines are available at some future time.
What really requires accurate statistical measurement is the level of government incompetence that is ultimately responsible for the entire situation from start to end. But that’s a discussion for another day.
The potential social, political and economic pandemic that awaits us after the coronavirus scare subsides will dwarf any current fears, and you don’t need a statistical analysis to understand why.
That’s why it is with a grim demeanour that we are forced to conclude that it may be an extraordinarily long time before anything starts looking Just Right again – if ever.
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